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MEASURED. EXPLAINED.
Annual NLCD Collection 1 Version 2 fractional impervious cover, 1985–2025, aggregated from 30 m observations to the same 900 m WGS84-Albers grid as the frozen historical model test. Values use exact native-pixel overlap areas.
Impervious cover includes roofs, roads and other hard surfaces. A 10% crossing is a visual settlement indicator, not a building permit or construction date. No missing year is interpolated.
Place totals sum whole grid cells whose centers lie inside 2025 Census boundaries. These are grid summaries, not parcel measurements. Observed history and recent change cover the contiguous United States. Historical model comparisons remain limited to the original 29 study windows.
The track record uses saved predictions only. Mean top-5% capture was 73.0% for Khora and 60.6% for recent trend: 18 regions better, 9 tied and 2 behind. Pooled capture was 376 vs 292 of 597 growth fronts. The 29-region sample contains 26 small and 3 large regions, with none in the Northeast. These research-stage historical results do not establish future performance. No 2025-data rankings or future predictions appear here.
USGS Annual NLCD · Census boundaries · OpenFreeMap
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