FOR UTILITIES, CO-OPS, WATER SYSTEMS AND SCHOOL DISTRICTS

Know where new development lands next.

Khora ranks 900-meter cells in your service territory to highlight where new pavement and buildings may emerge. Your planners start with the top 5–10% instead of the whole map.

Get a free retrospective scan See the evidence

A clearer starting point for the places you plan.

Sioux Falls: 60 of 73 observed growth fronts within the method’s 344 selected cells. Misses are shown with pink rings.

Real historical output: a 74.7 km study region in 900 m cells, with growth measured in 2021–2025.

376: growth fronts in Khora’s top 5% of cells
353: in trend-following’s top 10%, twice the area
29: U.S. regions, none used to build the model

SAME REGION, TWO SHORTLISTS

Both picked 344 cells. Khora’s held 60 growth fronts. Trend-following’s held 47.

Trend-following bets on places that were already growing. Khora reads the shape of the whole settlement, so it also flags edges that had been quiet.

Sioux Falls: 47 of 73 observed growth fronts within the method’s 344 selected cells. Misses are shown with pink rings.

Built up in 2016The method’s top 5%Picked, and it developedDeveloped, but not picked

Sioux Falls had the largest net gain in growth fronts of the 29 regions (+13). See all 29 below.

SOUTH OF JOLIET, ILLINOIS · AN ILLUSTRATIVE CASE

Quiet ground. High ranks.
Visible change.

Four 900-meter cells ranked near the top using 2016 data. Aerial photographs show the ground in 2015 and the roofs and pavement visible by 2025. The middle panel puts the historical picks in context.

September 2015 aerial photograph south of Joliet, showing open fields among existing buildings, roads and rail lines. — Open fields between existing roads and buildings.

The identical 2015 aerial image with four original 900-meter cells outlined in cobalt. Khora ranks 4, 13, 26 and 118; trend ranks 6,512, 6,420, 1,066.5 tied, and 423. — Four saved ranks, overlaid on the same 2015 view.

August–September 2025 aerial photograph of exactly the same extent, with the same four 900-meter cells outlined in cobalt around the additional roofs and paved surfaces. — The same four cells, with new roofs and pavement visible.

Khora rank / trend rank

4/ 6,512
13/ 6,420
26/ 1,066.5*
118/ 423

Same extent in every panel. USDA NAIP imagery: September 16, 2015 (1 m source resolution); August 9 and September 14, 2025 (0.6 m). *Trend ranks 1,065–1,068 are tied; 1,066.5 is the midpoint.

Selected examples, not a typical outcome. These are retrospective rankings from 2016 data, not forecasts issued in 2016. The photographs illustrate visible change; the measured growth period remains 2021–2025.

Explore the Kankakee study region in the Atlas ↗Imagery sources, dates and original cell boundaries ↗

ACROSS ALL 29 REGIONS

More growth fronts in less territory.

Khora’s top 2% of cells held 40% of all growth fronts. Its top 10% held 80%. Khora found more at each search budget shown, so you can explore the one that fits your planning budget.

Search 5% of the territory,
find 63% of the growth fronts

Explore a search budget 5%

Share of all 597 growth fronts observed in 2021–2025 found in the top-ranked cells. Rankings use 2016 data across 29 U.S. regions. Pooled results; fractional credit at tied cutoffs.

THE HEADLINE RESULT

Our top 5% found more growth fronts than trend-following’s top 10%.

We ranked 29 U.S. regions from 2016 data, then counted the growth fronts that actually appeared from 2021 to 2025: 900-meter areas where pavement and buildings expanded substantially. There were 597 in total.

Khora, top 5% of cells376

Trend-following, top 10% of cells (twice the area)353

Trend-following, top 5% of cells292

Bars show growth fronts found out of 597. Trend-following ranks cells by their growth over the previous five years.

+84: more growth fronts in the same 5% search area: 105 found only by Khora, 21 only by trend-following
80%: of all 597 growth fronts fell in Khora’s top 10% of cells (63% in its top 5%)
55.4 km²: of net new paved and built surface inside Khora’s top 5%, against 47.4 km² for trend-following

REGION BY REGION

Better in 18 regions, tied in 9, behind in 2.

On average, Khora’s top 5% caught 73.0% of each region’s growth fronts. Trend-following caught 60.6%.

In 4 of the 9 ties, both methods caught every new front in the region. In the ten regions growing fastest before 2016 (chosen before any outcomes were seen), Khora was better in 9, tied in 1 and behind in none, by 13.6 points on average.

None of the 29 regions were used to build the model. They are mostly smaller metros (26 small, 3 large), with none in the Northeast. The high-growth subgroup is descriptive.

++++++++++++++++++=========−−

Khora better (18)Tied (9)Trend-following better (2)

Each square is a region. Select one to explore its saved results.

View the results for all 29 regions

Historical top-5% capture · 344 cells selected per method, per region
Study region	Growth fronts	Khora found	Trend found	Result
Redding, CA ↗	3	3	3	Tied
Flagstaff, AZ ↗	4	4	4	Tied
Kankakee, IL ↗	53	35	23	Khora better
Johnson City, TN ↗	11	3	3	Tied
Grand Island, NE ↗	12	11	9	Khora better
Tyler, TX ↗	13	5	6	Trend better
Salisbury, MD--DE ↗	43	30	20	Khora better
Appleton, WI ↗	56	37	26	Khora better
Harrisonburg, VA ↗	9	7	4	Khora better
Monroe, LA ↗	5	4	4	Tied
Chico, CA ↗	12	8	5	Khora better
Huntington, WV--KY--OH ↗	7	0	1	Trend better
Parkersburg, WV--OH ↗	1	1	1	Tied
St. George, UT ↗	45	36	31	Khora better
Rapid City, SD ↗	20	18	13	Khora better
Las Cruces, NM ↗	11	8	5	Khora better
Albany, GA ↗	2	1	1	Tied
Missoula, MT ↗	3	3	2	Khora better
San Angelo, TX ↗	5	4	4	Tied
Grants Pass, OR ↗	3	3	2	Khora better
Decatur, IL ↗	6	6	5	Khora better
Manhattan, KS ↗	1	1	1	Tied
Grand Forks, ND--MN ↗	4	3	3	Tied
Hinesville, GA ↗	59	25	21	Khora better
Sioux Falls, SD ↗	73	60	47	Khora better
Sioux City, IA--NE--SD ↗	10	8	6	Khora better
Mobile, AL ↗	38	16	13	Khora better
Peoria, IL ↗	3	3	2	Khora better
Tulsa, OK ↗	85	33	27	Khora better

ONE ILLUSTRATIVE LOCATION

A cell trend-following ranked 6,512th. Khora ranked it 4th.

South of Joliet, Illinois, in our Kankakee study region, one 900-meter cell had seen essentially no growth in the five years before 2016. A trend-based ranking put it near the bottom. Khora put it near the top. Within five years it was nearly half paved or built over.

Northwest corner of the Kankakee study region. The outlined cell south of Joliet was ranked fourth by Khora. — Northwest corner of the Kankakee study region, just south of Joliet. Outlined: the cell ranked 4th. Same key as the maps above.

Share of the cell covered by pavement and buildings

12.1%

2016 (ranked)

47.8%

2021

63.8%

2025

An illustrative cell, not a typical outcome. Historical rank does not establish what will happen at an individual location.

WHAT YOU GET

A ranked map of your territory, built on the Khora Engine.

01 · Free

Retrospective scan

How Khora would have ranked your territory from 2016 data, checked against what was actually built from 2021 to 2025. You see how it does on ground you know.

02 · Research stage

Forward ranking

A research-stage ranking from 2025 data, highlighting areas to investigate for development during 2030–2034, the same five-to-nine-year horizon we tested. A dated record is kept so results can be checked as they arrive.

03 · For your team

GIS-ready files

Ranked 900-meter cells with top 5% and top 10% flags, delivered as GeoJSON and CSV. Ready to overlay on your system maps, load forecasts or facility plans.

YOUR TERRITORY. A CLEARER STARTING POINT.

See how Khora ranks your territory.

Tell us your service area. We’ll discuss a free retrospective scan and walk your planning team through what it found, including where it missed.

Explore settlement growth, 1985–2025, in the Atlas

Observed settlement history across the contiguous United States.